I’ve mentioned my deep concern over how high the GOP-funded, Russia propaganda-spewing, conspiracy-dribbling election spoiler RFK, Jr. is currently polling, as he’s been hovering between 3 and 8 points, nationally, depending on which poll you’re looking at — and how the Trump campaign’s social media campaign to divide Democratic voters and draw young voters away from Biden (a Quinnipiac poll in December showed Kennedy getting a staggering 40% of 18-34 year old registered voters, along with 11%) is having an effect. This February piece from MSNBC digs in to some of what may be causing this.
But what’s truly been a warning sign are the polls in the individual swing states — specifically 2 of them:
MICHIGAN (Fox, 4/19): 9 points.
WISCONSIN (Marquette, 4/17): 13 points.
There are other states I could mention, like North Carolina, which Biden only narrowly lost in 2020, and which RFK, Jr. is currently polling at 12 points in (Quinnipiac, 4/10), along with others, like Georgia — but considering that Michigan and Wisconsin are two states that are absolutely pivotal, let’s stick with them.
Well, he’s officially made the ballot in Michigan. And it’s officially now a 3-way race in the state.
From CNN:
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. officially qualified for the ballot in Michigan, a key battleground state that could prove pivotal in deciding the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
Now, I’m not sure if Jill Stein, who, while not even close to RFK, Jr.’s polling, is getting as high as 3 points right now (the most recent Marquette on 4/17 put Stein at 3), will make the ballot in any state, but RFK, Jr. alone, starting to get on ballots is something that can’t be ignored any more. And the Biden campaign certainly isn’t.
About a week ago, I watched RFK, Jr. being interviewed by Erin Burnett on CNN. I watched him say with a straight face, that President Biden is a bigger threat to Democracy than Trump. I watched him give his inexplicable — single — reason why he thought so (which was a lie about Biden’s DOJ “kicking him off of social media”, which was patently absurd, considering that he was kicked off for spreading dangerous misinformation about COVID as part of a general public health and safety collaboration between the administration and social media at the time. I watched him closely, when Burnett asked him if he thought that Trump trying to overthrow a U.S. election was just a *bit* more dangerous — and I saw him practically have an aneurysm as he struggled to manage a criticism of Trump — and what I clearly saw signs of, was a man who didn’t want to say anything to upset his boss.
Meanwhile, as mentioned, the Trump campaign, no doubt with the help of foreign-based accounts, is conducting a wedge operation on social media and elsewhere, to try to peel more young voters from Biden and drive them to RFK, Jr. — and the right-wing media is promoting him everywhere — all while the campaign itself may be directly working with Trump to hurt Biden’s electoral count in New York.
Now, this said — there are many dynamics which could ultimately change before November. And a brand-new New York Times/Sienna survey shows RFK, Jr. only getting 2% (although, considering that Stein took 1.7% of the vote in Michigan in 2016, 2% is — well, still 2%). And it’s very possible that the Kennedy family officially endorsing Biden over their own relative, who’ve they’ve long-since all-but disowned, could have an impact. And it could be that the many things he’s said — and who is supporting and promoting him — may end up getting wider exposure. I certainly hope so — and at this point, I hope some will consider it their job to dissuade people they know from making a terrible mistake.
I’m not sure what the solution is, here, besides, of course, the fact that the fight to prevent Trump from taking power again is now a fight on two fronts, with the admitted spoiler, RFK, Jr. having secured the ballot in Michigan — which is making Trump — and Vladimir Putin — very happy today.
And it’s making me reach for my Pepto-Bismol.